Financial Model
Investment & Returns
Detailed financial projections for a 250 ha medium-scale operation
Annual Revenue
$900K
At maturity
Annual EBITDA
$670K
At maturity
IRR (20-year)
12%
Base scenario
Payback Period
12 years
Break-even Year 12
Scenario Comparison
Conservative
Raw Pods Only
Revenue$700K
IRR8%
Payback14 yrs
Base
Primary Processing
Revenue$900K
IRR12%
Payback12 yrs
Optimistic
Value-Add Processing
Revenue$1945K
IRR18%
Payback9 yrs
Adjust Your Assumptions
Interactive Projection Calculator
Bulk Wholesale$2.50
$1 (bulk)$25 (retail)
100%
50% (conservative)150% (optimistic)
$900K
Annual Revenue
$666K
EBITDA
35%
Est. IRR
Yr 8
Payback
Estimated 20-Year Value
Based on current assumptions
$8.7M
Base case assumes $2.50/kg wholesale. Retail channels (SA: ~$24/kg) offer 5-10x margin upside. Adjust sliders to explore different scenarios.
15-Year Cash Flow Projection
50-Year Lifetime Value Projection
100+
The 100-Year Asset Advantage
Carob trees produce for over a century with increasing yields
Year 15
$2.3M
Commercial production
Year 20
$5.8M
Building production
Year 25
$9.8M
Strong production
Year 30
$14.3M
Mature production
Year 40
$30.8M
Peak production
Year 50
$48.8M
Peak sustained
Initial Investment: $1.4M35x Return over 50 Years
Year-by-Year Projections (Base Scenario)
| Year | CAPEX | OPEX | Revenue | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $700K | $85K | - | $-785K | $-0.79M |
| 2 | $250K | $85K | - | $-335K | $-1.12M |
| 3 | $100K | $85K | - | $-185K | $-1.30M |
| 4 | $50K | $85K | - | $-135K | $-1.44M |
| 5 | $50K | $85K | - | $-135K | $-1.57M |
| 6 | - | $130K | $100K | $-30K | $-1.60M |
| 7 | - | $140K | $200K | $60K | $-1.54M |
| 8 | $250K | $150K | $350K | $-50K | $-1.59M |
| 9 | - | $180K | $500K | $320K | $-1.27M |
| 10 | - | $200K | $600K | $400K | $-0.88M |
| 11 | - | $220K | $750K | $530K | $-0.34M |
| 12 | - | $230K | $850K | $620K | $0.28M |
| 13 | - | $230K | $900K | $670K | $0.94M |
| 14 | - | $230K | $900K | $670K | $1.61M |
| 15 | - | $230K | $900K | $670K | $2.29M |
Use of Funds
Investment Breakdown ($1.4M)
| Category | Amount | % |
|---|---|---|
| Land & infrastructure | $575K | 41% |
| Trees & planting | $250K | 18% |
| Equipment | $100K | 7% |
| Working capital (5 years) | $75K | 5% |
| Contingency | $150K | 11% |
| Processing upgrade | $250K | 18% |
Investment Phases
Phase 1: Establishment$1.15M
Years 1-5: Land, infrastructure, trees, working capital
Phase 2: Processing$250K
Year 8: Kibbling equipment and facilities
Scale Options
pilot
Hectares50 ha
Trees5,000
Investment$150K - $0.3M
Revenue (mature)$200K - $0M
Payback8-10 yrs
medium
RecommendedHectares250 ha
Trees25,000
Investment$750K - $1.3M
Revenue (mature)$1000K - $2M
Payback10-12 yrs
large
Hectares1000 ha
Trees100,000
Investment$3000K - $5.0M
Revenue (mature)$4000K - $8M
Payback12-15 yrs